value as that buyout battle continues. hewlett-packard and jcpenney down 44%. bill, back to you. >> courtney, thank you. quick look at the day on the street before we go. make way for the "fast money" gang. the market ending on a high note for the year, the dow up 166 points. capping off a pretty good year of more than 7% gains. nasdaq up 59, 2% gain and the s&p up 23 points. so, all in all, a pretty good day, even without a fiscal cliff resolution, mandy. >> i'm going to throw in another rare stat here, you noticed that we closed up 2% on the nasdaq. i believe that never before has it closed up 2% on the final trading day of the year. and once again, that's thanks to our crack data team. they do a fantastic job year after year. thank you to them for making us look smart. on that note, that does it for "the closing bell." happy new year, everybody, and thank you for watching.

live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square, where the ball is set to drop in just a few hours time, i'm melissa lee. here are tonight's top three trades. 2013 predictions, the traders give their top bets for the new year. internet wars, which tech stock will come out on top as a race for web dominance heats up. and the king himself, dennis gartman, has his outlook for 2013. we need to get the the stop story right now, and that is teetering on the fiscal cliff. let's go to d.c., where all the action has been in the past 48 hours. john harwood has the latest. john? >> >> melissa, the first headline is, we are going over the cliff tonight, because we're not going to have action in both houses of congress on a deal. we don't have a deal yet. the house isn't going to vote. we don't know if the senate is going to hold any votes. the senate is still waiting for the outcome of the biden-mcconnell talks that are hung up over a couple of things

including the issue of the across the board spending cuts which democrats want staved off for a year or so. republicans want to begin that cutting process right now. but let's talk for a moment about what we know about what has been agreed to, have to caution that until everything's agreed to, nothing is set in stone. bull here's what we know. the -- it appears that the top rate on taxes is going to go up to the clinton era level, 39.6% for individuals making more than $400,0 $400,000, for families making, married couples making more than $450,000. the estate tax, which some democrats don't like this provision, but they want to go from 35 under current law to 40% on estates over $5 million. that's a controversial provision, that's a win for republicans. still in some flux. on capitol gains and dividends, the rates would go from 15% under current law for 20% for people in the top income

bracket. some popular tax deductions and credits from the stimulus bill, on clean energy, wind energy, education tax credits would be preserved under this deal. unemployment benefits extended for a year. there would be a doc fix. that is preventing doctors who work under medicare from having their reimbursements dramatically cut and you've had a fix to the alternative minimum tax, protecting tens of millions of families from a huge increase in their tax bill based on some provision that was originally intended only to hit people at the top. that's what we know so far but there's still elements in play and democrats have not yet scheduled a caucus meeting in the senate to sell this deal to their members. when they do that, you can expect vice president biden to go to the hill, talk to democrats, try to persuade them to vote for this. >> you mentioned in the biden/mcconnell talks, a couple of sticking points. one is the sequestering.

what was the second one? >> well, there's disagreements over the estate tax. there's disagreements over the, how to pay for and whether to pay for the so-called doc fix. there's a whole lot of issues. one issue that i -- there has been tentative agreement on, which i didn't mention, melissa, is a phase-out of the personal deduction amounts for incomes over $250,000 for individuals, $300,000 for married couples. that is a nod to the $250,000 level president obama said is where tax increases should start. >> in your view, could any of these sticking points be deal breakers? >> ah, yes. i think it's possible that they could be deal breakers. i don't think they will be, in the end. but there's serious disagreements. both sides are really digging in on the sequester cuts. that's a hard thing for republicans to come out, saying we're voting to raise taxes but we're not voting for spending cuts. democrats are saying, well, you're not raising taxes that much.

in fact, way below what the president asked for and what speaker boehner offered in determines of additional tax revenue. i would expect they would get over that later tonight, but we don't know that for sure. and i do think, melissa, that going over the december 31st at midnight deadline has the potential for changing the dynamic a little bit, taking a little bitle of the urgency out of negotiations, especially for democrats, some of whom have felt, well, going over the cliff, we'll be in a stronger position. that's something to watch. >> john, keep us posted on everything coming out of d.c. john harwood from the white house. so, the question is, do you buy or sell the rally that we saw today on the hope that perhaps we do have a deal in the making. we had very strong gains, paraly in technology and the small caps, each seeing 2% gains, tim. >> and china had a fantastic pmi number which said their manufacturing activity hasn't been this strong for 16 months. china is the second-largest economy in the world. and definitely not a fiscal cliff there.

but today's activity i thought was amazing when you consider there's still so much left undone and as john just said, everything he said was tax, tax, tax. >> amazing like a head scratcher? >> yeah. i get the fact we had five straight down days and we were oversold. i don't think you get a solution that rallies this market 2% tomorrow, even if it's everything everybody wanted to hear. >> right, the fact of the matter is, they may agree on taxes but taxes across the board pretty much are going higher and there's still the debt limit issue and then the spending cuts issue. >> that's the thing. you nailed it. the debt ceiling conversation is going to be a weapon of force and it's something that's going to be hanging over this market. i heard nothing about entitlements. a house that wasn't even going to vote for boehner's plan b, which was $1 million in terms of the tax increases. i'm a little skeptical and i'm more worried about what happens from here. >> i think tim hit it right on the head. the debt ceiling debate is going to be a problem. remember what we had in 2011, it was a disaster. what it looks like to me, you

have a lot of people getting long this market. you couldn't come in on wednesday morning and not be long this market and have it up 3%. so, you have a lot of people getting in, whether it was levered or unlevered. then you might get a rally but you have to take some off the table. it's going to be tough sledding. >> you would sell but on wednesday, when we walk in for the first trading session of 2013, we'll see gains? >> absolutely. you can buy it on the open in the morning because people will be getting into it but it would be a rental position, wouldn't be a long-term -- >> there's a lot of traders that held out today, hoping that you would see the market sell off so, to get another opportunity, so, they held off. they'll be a buyer on wednesday, but i truly believe this is too long in the tooth, higher taxes, as you said, we're going off the cliff. right? >> yeah. >> without saying, but now the top rate is not 39.6%, we're above that. capital gains not really 20%,

we're 23.8%. there's a whole bunch of tax raises here, nothing but tax raises. i don't think, as tim said, we have a lot of sledding to do, but you have to take profits. >> and the deductions will be phased out. that's a key thing that's going to hit a lot of americans. >> bummer for me. >> for all of us. >> hi. happy new year. i thought friday's action was more surprising than today's action because we spoke about a move like this, i think last week, saying, as you get closer to deal, you'll see a 20 to 25-point rally in the s&p. and here you have it. the news over the next couple of weeks will be on the margins positive for the market. i wouldn't be surprised to see us pushed towards 1500. that's going to be, to me, the opportunity to get short this thing in a major fashion, because what they didn't come to solution for is revenue growth which continues to slow. and in my opinion, a multiple that should be lower than it currently is. you see a push toward 1500, i think the trade of the year will

be getting short this market early 2013. >> they wanted revenue increases, right, they wanted entitlements cut. tim opened up the show, saying no talk of entitlements. no talk about cutting. it is the reverse. we have $520 billion in revenue raises and $130 billion in cuts and entitlements. math doesn't work. >> if you look at what happened to the treasury market and what it's been doing, we broke back to the ten-year. we're in a place where the yields look like they want to break out. there's a lot of risk. 28-month highs for the dollar against the yen. this tells me the carry trade is back envogue. there's risk being put on. there are other places in the world that look very interesting. >> scott nations, you are a short-term buyer of the markets but you fade this thing hard? >> well, i'm not certain i'd fade it hard. i'm more optimistic. i think this is a bigger win than we would have thought on the close friday when things looked horrible.

largely because it sounds like this deal is more comprehensive than we would have thought on friday. it seems like they've got the death tax figured out. amt, which is a huge problem for a lot of middle class americans, it sounds like there's going to be a solution there. so, they're actually getting all their ducks in a row. they are solving a lot more problems than we would have thought. last friday, we would have begged them to just get us down to january 15th without some sort of horrible tax rate increase. we would have kicked all those other issues down the road. this is more comprehensive and i think it's a better solution than we could have hoped for. >> there's still a can that is being kicked down the road as we speak and that road may be very tough for a lot of companies out there and may make it difficult for first quarter earnings. >> consumers, as everybody's taxes are going up. you look at consumer credit. it is at all-time highs and a two standard deviation from the 50-year trend. consumer credit is a fixed cost.

your income goes down. you have a problem paying that credit. so, that's why after the first couple months you could have some issues with consumers in this market. >> again, consumer discretionary, the payroll tax is going on you right -- excuse me, the holiday is going away -- >> increase. >> people feel this right away. confidence is not good right now. it gets worse. >> first paycheck of the year, you will see your taxes go up 2%. >> how you feel about that? >> not good. >> happy new year to you. >> to you, too. let's get a market check with courtney. we're keeping with the cliff theme with you. >> absolutely. cliffs natural resources, though it has nothing to do with that, it's a mining company, as you know, the best performer on the s&p 500 today, up 8.4%, moving higher on those numbers out of china, the hsbc manufacturing index strongest in 18 months. however, down from the previous month. new export activity fell because of this weak demand. so, the big question, will the momentum continue? this stock actually the worst performer on the s&p 500 for the

year. >> wow. the worst, but at the same time, we're seeing iron ore prices, huge fourth quarter. >> closed at $140 today. they were at $86 eight weeks ago. people were pricing in death and destruction for coke and coal. the cliffs are 92% coke and coal, iron ore. this is an impressive stock to look at because this is a barometer. we broke through major levels on this stock today. i think it goes higher. i think the other guys in the space go higher. >> the only problem, though, tim, is that cliffs was lagging iron ore prices. we spoke about it in september, it was down to $85, $86. now it looks like -- i'm talking about iron ore. it looks like it's hitting a wall. clutches did lag. i feel like it had too big of a move. >> iron ore prices are choppy. and i think those prices aren't -- you shouldn't see a

direction correlation. people are skeptical first and they will wait to buy. coming up next, how to play the pickup in the housing market into 2013. plus, we take a deep dive into technology to find the best opportunities for the new year. and our traders give you their best and worst trades of 2012. back right after this. welcome to chevy's year-end event. so, the 5.3-liter v8 silverado can tow up to 9,600 pounds?

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take a look at the futures after a massive, massive rally on wall street on hopes that perhaps there is a deal. major agreements being made when it comes to the tax increases, which had been seen as a major stumbling block here. the futures look stronger even after the s&p posted its biggest

ga gain for the month of december. but still, the desk here says, sell the move. >> the futures move also just to -- it's a technical thing. we went on friday, these things dropped from 406 down to, you know, 1389, 1390. you have this move, it looks like we are up 40 s&p points on futures today when it wasn't quite that dramatic. the optimism out there, and there are a lot of people that are ready to allocate and people were out of this market for a long time and when you have a positive global backdrop, but there are good things happening outside this country. >> let's get to yahoo! and apple, who have had a nice run in 2012, but as we turn the page and head into 2013, perhaps new beginning. >> i love that. you have the graphic ready. >> what is the better trade? would you rather apple or yahoo!? guy? what do you say? >> well, here comes the hate mail. i can see it now. you know, yahoo!, right around 20 bucks, a new high today, a

name we've talked about for a long time. i think in percentage terms and i can only go out for the next couple months, i think yahoo! is going to be the big winner. i don't discount the move apple had today. i understand valuations are compelling. if you want beta for this year, i think yahoo! is the stock. >> if one is to believe that tax cane or tax law, whatever it was, selling because of taxes at the end of the year is what fueled that decline from 700 plus in september down to where it was, do you think that people would re-enter the trade? >> you probably have a trading opportunity here in apple. i think that's what you're going to have here. people are going to get back in, they are going to get excited about the apple tv. i'm with guy on this one. i think yahoo! has more the element to surprise over 2013 than apple does. we kind of know what apple is going to do. yahoo! seems to be gaining momentum. so, i put my money there for the year. >> would you rather? >> i would be a player of yahoo!. it's a technical play. it runs into a little bit of choppy waters around $21.50, so,

just be careful. you are going to get your chance in yahoo!. if it trades below $19, that's where you exit the trade and look for 18 handle. >> let's dig deeper here. facebook fell flat this year. ebay celebrating the new year as one of the top performers in the nasdaq 100 and groupon fell 77%. linkedin rose 80%. how do you play these names this year? colin gill list is here to break down his top trade for 2013. what is it? >> happy new year, it's ebay. >> bring it, colin. >> the thing about ebay is, it's going to take momentum and continue that into 2013 because the marketplace, that core ebay brought that we all know and love has turned itself around. it is a brand new marketplace. it is not your father's beani ebay by action site. people are doing a lot of purchasing instead of bidding,

the whole buy it now. you have the paypal story, still tremendous, both from what they are doing online and offline. and while they turned around the company, they also positioned themselves for mobile. they're a tremendous leader in mobile. the market cap is $65 billion, and we think this is a company that, you know, you can get a 25% move in 2013. if you are interested in it, you can pair it up on the short side. >> with? >> you can pair it up with amazon. that's always a tough trade, right? being negative on amazon is a difficult story, but if you think about their market cap, it's north of $113 billion, almost twice what ebay is. people are concerned about that 2015 consensus of $10 in earnings, because the leverage in the story hasn't come out. ebay's estimates are likely to continue to revise up, amazon's may come down. >> what about amazon with amazon web services? what about amazon with streaming, what about amazon coming out with a mobile phone,

beating everybody that is speculated to come out with a mobile phone? >> it's true, but actually, if you look at the numbers for 2012, ebay outperformed amazon. so, the trade worked in '12 and i think it's going to work in '13. i'm not saying just to short amazon alone, but if you want to pair it up against ebay, i believe ebay will outperform. >> colin, ebay hasn't grown really at all internationally in the last four, five years. this is a huge opportunity for them. i'm frustrated because i'm seeing, you know, paypal, murcado -- >> yeah, love that. >> this is really, they are leapfrogging into this type of payment system. they are not even using the credit cards anymore and this is an exciting place and they're missing. they're not growing there. >> you know, at the same token, right, if you want to pick a pocket of strength, the united states is a stronger marketplace than europe right now. and you can see that ebay is resurging in the u.s. and so, as europe gets weaker, that makes it a stronger play for 2013. plus, if you are concerned about

the impact of taxes going up, and you want to down market play, ebay gives you the same goods at a range of price points, right? new this season, new last season, refiurbed, used. >> colin gill list, thank you. >> stud. >> yeah. would you pair up a long ebay with a short amazon? >> amazon, last week, we said they are probably going to trade down to $240, it was $242 and change today. i think amazon probably continues higher. but ebay is a monster. we talked about it forever. the valuations are fair, as colin just said, so, yeah, i like ebay alone. >> all right, still to come, the final stock market pops and drops for the year. but first, what happens to commodities if global growth slows in 2013? we have your top trades with the commodities king. and financials become the top group in the s&p this year. why one trader is turning bearish on them. much more "fast" coming up. [ male announcer ] how do you trade? with scottrader streaming quotes, any way you want.

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we've come to expect, in the asset markets, a 10% plus type of return for taking equity risk and really, if the real economy only grows at 2% or 3%, then it is a case of spinning straw into

cold and how long that can continue, a 5% return from stock, 2% to 3% return from bonds is something that we would expect going forward. >> that was bill gross breaking down his outlook for the economy and markets for next year. let's get reaction to the latest on a potential cliff deal from the commodities king himself, dennis gartman, who joins us this evening on the fast line. hey, dennis. >> hey, mel. >> we are seeing the futures up sharply after the biggest gain in the month of december. what of do you do with this cliff rally? >> well, i'm not sure i'm going to follow through with it. i think it's probably a bit overdone, just as friday's disappointment was a bit overdone on the down side. things get a little strange on the last day of the year. no question, there's a great deal of window dressing. but at least it looks like something is going to get resolved, at least we're not going to have tax increases for everybody. and that's not a bad thing. i was impressed, it looks like we're going to get the decision to have the marginal rate go up

$400,000 and $500,000 and i heard they're going to talk about only capital gains rating going up to 20% tax, which is one of the reasons the market took off today. so, on balance, not bad for what we have in washington at this point. >> all right, let's get to your outlook for next year and you do look, like two sectors that have been on absolute tears this year, we're talking housing and banking. >> yes. one of the things i found interesting, there was a chart i came across over the weekend, the price of a median house in the united states in gold terms, it costs about 600 ounces of gold to buy the median house at the turn of a century, only 90 ounces of gold right now. housing is cheap. gold is expensive. housing's cheap, gold is dear. we may see the housing market continue to do better. i think that's going to continue. a lot of people who lost jobs are getting jobs back. college students are actually

feeling a little bit better about life. they are finding apartments. those number of units we're having are going to be very beneficial. i suspect over the next year, what one wants to do is err upon the side of being out of gold stocks and long of housing stocks given the fact that we've taken that housing to gold ratio from 600 ounces to 100 ounces. that's a big decline. >> all right, and your top pick, dennis, for 2013 is? >> something that no one is paying much attention to is cotton. it's one of my favorite commodities. it's where i grew up in the early 1970s. looking for cotton, down over $2 a bale, to two years ago to 75 cents now, it got down under 70 cents, i think we're going to see a large switch out of the mid-south and maybe even some of the high plains to corn and soybeans, out of cotton. i think if we have a pickup in china, we could see a wearing down of cotton inventories relatively quickly. you could get cotton back to $1

over the course of the next year or two. cotton, because it's been sideways for eight, nine months, built a base, doesn't want to go down and the term structure are gaining upon the deferred which is something i always like to see. >> and little known fact that dennis gartman and eli whitney were childhood friends. >> well, actually, eli was younger than i was. he was a senior when i was a sophomore. >> that's rry donning ewe louse. >> dennis, happy new year. >> it has been great fun. thanks. >> dennis gartman. that wasn't nice. come on, eli whitney? >> come on. >> dennis is called to be long home builders and short gold stocks is a trade to me that looks long in the tooth. dennis, who is probably wearing cotton and noll polyester, by the way, knows the underlying spots in these things very well. i would say, gold miners to me, look like a great trade here and selling housing stocks looks

like a great trade. this is more the contrarian move. gold miners are trading at four, four and a half times earnings, even significantly less. i like gfi, we're long here. the these have been tough trades in 2012. contrarian, reversion of the main, 2013. >> speaking of, financials went from worst to first in 2012. the biggest winner this year. but scott, you noticed some unusual activity in the etf. >> somebody doesn't think it's going to continue. we saw a giant buyer put buyer in the xlf. they bought 31,000, so, puts covering about 3.1 million shares. the option they bought was the march $16 put. they paid 58 cents for that. the break even is $15.42. and the reason i think this is really interesting, they bought the at the money puts strike. this is pure protection. they want pure protection from any drop in the xlf and going to get one below $15.42.

>> what do you do with financials? if you believe there's going to be bumpy roads ahead because of the fiscal cliff, do you get out? >> yes, i would. if you have a sector that was down 18%, talking about the etf, a sector down 18% and now up 24.5%, i would be lightning up on that one. i would take another look at the utility stocks. those are the ones. i made some decent money there and i'm taking another look there. i think we're going to have the same roller coaster year. >> it's interesting that he brought up eutilitieutilities. that's how the financials, i think, are going to trade in 2013. if you look at them on a book value basis, once they get up the one times book, that's when you tell them. drop below that, there's a chance to buy. they're going to look a lot like utilities, especially if they get the dividends and you do have a catalyst at the beginning of the first quarter. >> okay, and of course, you can catch more options action, every friday, 5:00. check out

facebook.com/optionsaction. time now for pops and drops. the movers you might have missed in today, the final trading session of 2012. pop for masco. ers? >> a great name here that had a monster year. i think it's a bit long in the tooth. up 4% today. if you come in on wednesday and it's up again, i would take my profits. >> bby, guy? >> just saw another low in the stock. this move is expected. we've seen these moves before. you are probably going to see the stock continue to rally this week. gets over 12 bucks, you sell it again. >> pop for macy's, up 4%. >> they always had leverage over their is up mrilers. stock had been on a tear. it came in pretty dramatically. 37 seems to be the bottom in the name. i think the consumer is going to be a little bit squishy. i'd stay away from the move. >> tim, freeport-mac up 3%. >> they're going to be spending significant money to get outside the copper space. you could have made money here.

copper is going higher. i believe in 2013, as the year comes to a close, forget that we're going into 2013, because the market is going higher, copper will go higher. >> drop for watson pharmaceuticals, scott. >> at the end of november, the economy said that it's drug was going to be a big profit driver. it going to be for is somebody but somebody else, because a buy competitor got clearance today from the fda to sell the drug in generic form. >> and a pop here for chickens. >> huh? >> here's a reason to give up poultry in the new year. a pet chicken named cluck cluck is being touted as a hero after waking up its owners during a house fire. the wisconsin couple was able to escape unarmed after hearing the brave bird jacqusquawking. >> how long have they been living in the chicken coop? >> in a happy ending -- geez, guys. firefighters saved cluck cluck the chicken from being roasted. >> do they name every chicken and do they all have this goofy

name? >> guy? what do you think? >> if you had a chicken, what would you name it? >> what do you mean if? melissa. what else could you name it? >> what a compliment. >> breaking news. coming up, three things in the markets you probably missed in 2012, plus, out with the old, in with the new. a look if you should part with some of the year's stock market winners. and later on, how to take your portfolio to new heights in 2013. more "fast" straight ahead. ♪ [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain... [ thunder rumbles ] ♪ [ male announcer ] when the world moves... futures move first. learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars.

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details about what a final cliff deal will look like are emerging tonight. ben white joins us now with the very latest. ben, and the markets seemed to be very relieved but really, one of the biggest issues is still down the road, left to be contended with. >> the debt ceiling is going to be a bigger market-moving event. any deal if we get one tonight, tomorrow, the next day, it's not going to have an extension in the debt limit or raising of the debt limit and republicans aren't going to give that up. that's their wedge. >> all they got.

>> which this deal is apparently not going to have much of, if any, spending cuts, that's what republicans want. they have to use the debt ceiling to get it. obama says i won't negotiate on the debt ceiling, how can he not? he has to. >> why is the it flip? when we were looking at, we opened the show, we talked about revenues and also talking about entitlement cuts, why did it flip around? why was there supposed to be $3 of cuts to every dollar of revenue and we never heard about that again. >> it's a very good question. that's what obama and boehner were talking about, how to get to that split. and they just couldn't agree. and republicans kept saying to democrats, let's see your spending cuts, where are they and democrats said, if you want to cut social security and medicare, you tell us how you want to do it. the people like the idea of spending cuts but when you get down to the specifics, not very popular. so, it just wound up only on the tax issue, which is making republicans unhappy. >> let's talk about the republican party and now unified they are. we certainly saw boehner's plan b fail but might have just been some political positioning.

as we go into the debt ceiling, do they have a unified approach or could we see that party splinter apart? >> they have a tea party caucus who wants to see a debt ceiling increase without really serious spending cuts. they want to see on the order of a trillion dollars more in spending cuts in order for any increase to have, you know, any impact. you're going to see a real problem there in the republican car us can to get a debt ceiling deal that republicans can approve. you're going to have some of them who want to govern, who want to increase the debt creel egg, not flirt with a downgrade and default and you're going have the hard line conservatives saying, i don't care, i think it's bogus, the debt ceiling going past it, it doesn't matter. the democrfight is going to be . >> walk us through the political calculus in terms of the stumbling block at this point when it comes to the sequester. democrats want to extend that for a year. if we go over the cliff technically, though, does that strengthen the democrats' hand? what happens? how does the political equation change?

>> it changes it a lot. because democrats, you know, wake up tomorrow with tax rates having reverted across the board to the clinton era levels. they've gone up on everybody, not just the $450,000 that republicans are now willing to agree to. so, the question is, for democrats, what's the incentive for them to then accept a whole lot of spending cuts if they've already gotten their tax increases. i think republicans want to see a deal get done tonight because their hand is weakened tomorrow when tax rates have all gone up and democrats have gotten all the revenue they want. why would they want spending cuts. republicans tonight want to drive real spending cuts together with the rate increases on $450,000 and up. democrats, i don't know if they want to do that tomorrow. >> so, how does a deal get done? >> well -- >> what you said is right back to where we were. they're going to lose all their rev laj -- >> i'm not sure about that. a lot of democrats would lead to see a deal get done and who are okay with the level where it is, $450,000. not all of them. but some of them are there and the white house wants to see a deal get done. that's why the negotiations went

to biden. they're going to bring a lot of pressure to bear tonight on democrats to get on board with this and not run out the clock until tomorrow. because the white house wants a deal. they want to make sure there's not a hit to the economy and to markets. so, i think there's enough pressure from the white house and enough democrats who do want a deal that you could get one but there are those democrats who are not sure. >> futures are up right now, extending the gains from today's session. people want to know, you know, tomorrow, will we have a deal, whether it go through both the senate and the house and pass? >> i think it will. i think ultimately we will get a deal. it may be tonight. if it's not, i think it's probably tomorrow or the next day and we get the deal around where it is right now. sequester thing is a big problem. republicans want some spending cuts if they're going to raise taxes and right now, they don't think they have them. >> ben white, braving times square, in lockdown mode -- >> well, lockdown is a little -- >> they didn't let people in. >> they're corralling people. >> corralling people?

is that english. >> that's a great live shot from our crew. >> look at all the corrals of people. trapped with no bathroom in sight. >> guy, where are you going to be standing? >> it's the truth. >> smack in the middle, me and ryan seacrest rocking out. >> let's trade this thing. tim, you sounded very skeptical, you're like, well, we're going to be right back where we started from. >> well, i don't think there's going to be anything particular good for markets to digest on the back of this. i don't think the world has to fall off a cliff. there's been a market that's come through here that ultimately has priced a lot of this stuff in. so, to me, this is a market that you do need to be careful about it. i would not be chasing this rally into the new year. let's wait for boehner to get reappointed, the follow through from here before we have a real discussion. i think there are places to trade in this market. >> all right, so, let's trade. sometimes it's tough to buy the losers, sell the winners. let's play a little hold 'em or fold 'em. >> let's do it. >> three stocks that have surged this year. sprint. shares have exploded this year gaining 140%.

bk? >> hold 'em. i think you hold this name. earlier this year, sprint was on death watch. we were talking about their cash burn and how they might be out of business by the end of this year. they made it through. that psychology has changed. you hold sprint here. >> all right. next up, bank of america. the financial stock hands down the best performer in the dow this year, surging 109%. hold 'em or fold 'em. tim? >> you have to hold 'em. the thing that's not understood by people is that the trading part of this story, everybody recognizes the commercial banking story has gotten better. how about trading this? how about investment banking? this is something that's been a total head wind. and the fundamentals have been priced into these stocks that, say, they're not going to make money again. bank of america's got a big franchise. they told merrill lynch over five years ago. i would say long this name. >> and finally, the refiner tesoro, up 88% this year.

grasso? >> they don't show that they missed this type of a rally. i think they're going to come under pressure, though, so, i fold. >> nice and strong, all of you. >> wow. >> gold stars for everyone. except for guy. >> i never get one. coming up, market predictions. our traders tell you how to attack the new year. but first, jane wells has our west coast wrap. jane? >> i'm glad i'm here and not there. i don't know how you guys are going to get out of there tonight. up next, with all the accuracy of the mayans, i make my own predictions for 2013, plus a shocking development in the k / kim/kanye/kimy ebay by story. all that coming up after the break.

for mobile devices to medical marijuana we've got you covered on the west coast. jane wells joins us from l.a. with a very, very special new year's eve edition of the west coast wrap, jane. >> melissa, the west is dominated by tech. i've got several predictions but i'm going to start in tech, where i have two. first, we will get apple tv by the end of the year. and everyone is going to complain about it. my second prediction, microsoft will not reach $40 a share.

not only in 2013, but it will never, ever reach $40 a share. continue to insist the company is poised to explode, 27 analysts have buys or strong buys. they will be sentenced to spend time with kanye west and kim kardashian. both. not just kim. both, melissa. >> microsoft, never to hit 40 bucks a share. bk, what do you think? >> you know, listen. microsoft has had this opportunity to really explode -- >> you mean like what happened to win 8? >> what happened to the windows phone? >> i think you were in nursery school the last time it was $40, mel. >> i'd love to love moi kroo soft, bull you can't. i'm with jane on this one. >> all right. second, california's the largest farm state and i cover ag a lot. corn is going to $5 a bushel. and farmers who complain about the drought, even know yields were better than expected and they got top dollar for it, will not complain in 2013 there's too much corn, driving down prices but they will all still bile new trucks. melissa?

>> i tell you what, since willie nelson and farm aid and john cougar mel land camp, the farmers have been stealing from us. i don't feel too bad for farmers. >> geez. >> wow. >> end of the year, tim. >> they're still getting subsidies. i'm sorry. >> farmer hate mail is going to run in. >> it's a matter of security, tim! food security! >> oh, yeah. i forgot about that. we can grow more corn. >> geez wiz. >> finally. a hollywood prediction. the upcoming exploitation of the birth of kim kardashian and kanye west's baby, aka kimye, will bring e entertainment its greatest ratings ever because of the shocker that the baby is going to look very familiar. >> oh! >> is it is milkman? >> only one night. >> it only takes one night.

>> we think it's going to be a guy. >> you can only hope. >> you make for an ugly baby, guy. >> born with stubble. >> don't talk about my guy that way. >> oh. >> so cute. >> jane, can we have -- jane, usc/georgia tech, can you give us the final score there? >> no. no. >> sorry, jane. >> i want 2012 to go away. next year, fight on. >> happy new year, jane. >> thank you. take a look at the headline at the bottom of your screen. the house will reconvene at noon tomorrow, new year's day. see what happens then. coming up next, predictions you can bank on in the new year. back right after this.

prediction? >> yes, prediction. >> pain. >> there's a great future in plastics. think about it. >> i'll give you a winter prediction. it's going to be cold. it's going to be gray. and it's going to last you for the rest of your life. >> where we're going, we don't need roads.

>> nice. >> it may be the last day of 2012, but our traders are already making predictions for 2013. let's go around the horn, get your best guesses for the new year. >> best guesses, i guess. i would go, first one that i have is the hong kong dollar. i think that peg breaks this year. there are expanding money supply. their money supply is tied to the federal reserve. we know the federal reserve is going to print as many dollars as we need. i think you can buy hong kong dollar or ewh is a great way to play it. >> this is the ackman trade, correct? >> i think it happens this year in 2013. >> okay. >> second one on that is gold. i think it goes above $2,000 an ounce. excess reserves come out of the federal reserve, into the economy. you start to get a pickup in inflation and that's going to drive gold higher, above $2,000 an ounce. finally, i think the euro goes above $1.50. remember, you have germany in there and a break. they will not print as many -- >> only a year.

one year. >> guesses for one year. >> things can happen simultaneously, grasso. >> hold me back. >> what's going on? >> guy? >> let the other guys in. don't hong the ball. >> guy? >> oh, hi. >> hi. >> love that. great job by our crack crew with that great. >> silver. i think silver goes north of 40 you c bucks. i think silver, which is sort of under the radar screen, will catch up on the gold/silver ratio which is 15 to 1. i'm not saying the ratio is getting there but i think silver is going to explode. >> grasso? this is a bold prediction your part. >> i think the market is going to sell off 10%. you're going to see the market sell off drastically. i'm still in the gold miners. i i think everything is going to get hit. >> first half of the year, though. >> first half of the year. 10% selloff. the debt ceiling is weighing on the markets. consumers are going to be soft. i'm still in gdx but nothing is

going to be spared. you're going to have buying opportunities around the first half of the year. >> tim? >> outside a gang of farmers cornering me and beating me, emerging markets are going to outperform in 2013. the brics is underperformed. it's happened for the last month. stay in this trade. be long the em, be long the brics and be short the s&p against that and you'll do very well. >> scott nations? >> the fed tying short-term interest rates to unemployment means that short-term rates are going to go higher earlier than we would have expected. 50/50 they go up as early as the december 17-18 meeting of 2013. >> let's look at futures one more time. reuters report saying that senator mccain is indicating that the sequester is delayed for two months or so. a developing story, of course. but we are still clinging onto gains here in the afterhours session, after the biggest gain

for the month of december. in the s&p, the dow, as well as the nasdaq. going to take a break here, but we have your first move for 2013 when we come right back. [ male announcer ] at scottrade,

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